CS2 MR12 Economy & Break-Even Simulator
Explore CS2 loss-bonus levels, bomb-plant income and next-round cash under explicit model assumptions. The displayed probabilities are illustrative estimates, not measured betting edges.
Illustrative model, 2026-10-30. Map rates and buy-tier matchups are assumptions without a calibration dataset. Cash projections use fixed spending and exclude kill rewards, saved weapons and equipment drops. Check the event's rules and current game state before using a result.
Tactical Match State
Round Win Probability & Fair No-Vig Odds
Next-Round Economic Projections
Tactical Cascade Risk Warning
A lost buy can weaken a later purchase. Its effect depends on the current loss counter, cash, saved equipment and round outcome; it does not guarantee two lost rounds.
Economic projections follow CS2 MR12 round-loss mechanics. Gun rounds, utility preservation, and map-side asymmetry alter live win probabilities. Verify current round buys before betting.
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⚡ Read the Loss Counter Before Projecting a Buy
Under the loss-counter rule introduced by Valve in March 2019, a win reduces the counter by one; it does not universally reset it. Starting at level 4, two wins leave level 2, whose next losing-round payout is $2,400. Starting at level 2 would instead leave level 0. A sequence of results alone is insufficient without the starting state. Valve, 2019-03-13
Record each player's cash and equipment as well as the displayed bonus. The simplified buy tiers here are not an observation of a team's actual inventory. Two rounds are 2/12 of an MR12 half, but neither those rounds nor their winners are predetermined by the loss counter.
Read the related model assumptions and derivations at
Explore Formal CS2 Economy Models on EsportsMath.org →Frequently Asked Questions
How does MR12 differ from MR15?
A regulation MR12 half has 12 rounds rather than 15. Two rounds represent 16.67% rather than 13.33% of a half. This round-share comparison is not a measured increase in map-win probability; overtime and settlement depend on the event and market.
What does a bomb plant add after a T-side loss?
In the plant-loss branch modeled here, $800 per player is added to the loss payout. At loss level 0 the example is $1,400 + $800 = $2,200. That alone does not specify the next buy: carried cash, saved equipment and the outcome still matter.
Are the Nuke and Anubis percentages current professional win rates?
No. They are assumed map baselines in this illustrative model, as is the buy-tier matchup matrix. No dated calibration dataset is supplied. A score such as 7-5 cannot be converted into a near-certain map winner from those constants.