Esports Bankroll Tracker & Kelly Unit Sizer
Calculate optimal stake sizing with Fractional Kelly criterion (Half / Quarter Kelly). Log your bets locally in browser storage, track equity drawdowns on Canvas 2D, and trigger tilt-protection protocols before ruin occurs.
Kelly Criterion Stake Sizer
Recommended Stake & Value +7.25% EV
Local Session Tracker (Browser Storage)
Stored locally in this browser.Record Wager into Active Session
Recent Bet Ledger
Fractional Kelly staking buffers against model uncertainty and high esports variance. Drawdowns exceeding 15% should trigger the cooling-off tilt protocol. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
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⚡ Sharps Psychological Rule: The Half-Kelly & Tilt Protocol
Full Kelly maximizes long-term geometric bankroll growth in theory, but assumes perfect probability estimates. In esports, where meta shifts and player form inject parameter uncertainty, Full Kelly leads to violent 50%+ drawdowns that break bettor psychology. Half-Kelly (f*/2) captures 75% of the growth rate with only 50% of the volatility.
The single greatest destroyer of esports betting capital is revenge betting after a bad beat (such as an improbable 5v2 comeback loss). Our Tilt Protocol mandates that any drawdown exceeding 15% immediately halves all unit sizes, and a 25% drawdown requires an absolute 24-hour cessation of betting.
For formal mathematical derivations of Kelly log-growth proofs and gambler’s ruin boundary equations, explore our partner
Explore Formal Staking & Bankroll Mathematics on EsportsMath.org →Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Half-Kelly strictly recommended over Full Kelly in esports?
Full Kelly is notoriously aggressive. If your model overestimates win probability by just 5%, Full Kelly will severely overbet and risk ruin. Half-Kelly provides a safety cushion that protects capital against model estimation error.
How does the automated Tilt Protocol protect against emotional chasing?
When drawdowns exceed 15%, cognitive fatigue and emotional distress impair decision-making. The system alerts you to reduce unit exposure by 50% or enforce a mandatory 24-hour break to avoid catastrophic revenge betting.
Are my logged bets and financial numbers uploaded to any server?
Never. All bankroll metrics, stake amounts, and wagers are stored 100% locally in your browser’s localStorage (key: esportsharps_bankroll_v1). No monetary data is ever transmitted across the network.